UNCW Business School Professors Predict Continued Growth for Local Economy
6/14/2007 12:43:32 PM
E-Mail | Print
Downloadable Photos
Wilmington, N.C. - Following growth of six percent over 2006, the local economy of Brunswick, New Hanover, and Pender counties is forecast to expand by approximately seven percent over 2007 and six percent over 2008.
Dr. William W. Hall, Jr., senior economist with the Center for Business and Economic Services at the UNC Wilmington Cameron School of Business, announced the predictions during a news conference today(June 14) at UNCW. Dr. Ravija Badarinathi, professor of statistics in the Department of Information Systems and Operations Management in the Cameron School of Business, collaborates with Dr. Hall on the forecast.
Hall noted that actual economic growth in the local area for 2006 came in below that initially forecast (8 percent), due to lower than expected growth in the fourth quarter. In particular, after removing seasonal variation and adjusting for inflation, retail sales tax collections were flat between the third and fourth quarter. Similarly, building activity continued its decline which began near the end of the first quarter of the year.
Offsetting these declines were increases in area employment. Even though unemployment also rose over fourth quarter, employment gains more than offset the rise in unemployment.
Reviewing the most current data, Hall noted that local economic growth during the first quarter of the year was strong, with local economic activity expanding by almost five percent over the quarter. Growth most likely slowed during the second quarter. Growth is forecast to increase during the third quarter and to slow somewhat during the fourth quarter of the year. Fourth quarter 2007 growth, though not as robust as third quarter growth, will likely be more than triple that of fourth quarter 2006 growth. For 2007 as a whole, economic activity is forecast to grow approximately seven percent. Looking forward to 2008, Hall and Badarinathi predict growth of almost six percent over the year.
Despite relatively high gasoline prices, the tourism sector continues to show strength. Hall stated that collections from the first three-percent room occupancy tax levied in New Hanover County grew an average of more than five percent per year over the period 2002-2006. For the year ending March 2007, these collections are up by more than eight percent.
Hall noted that residential and nonresidential construction in New Hanover County has slowed substantially. For the year ending April 2007, residential permits are down more than 40 percent, and nonresidential permits are down more than 20 percent. Hall observed that residential activity peaked during first quarter 2006, and, based upon historical patterns, it could take 18-24 months before inventory adjustments work themselves out.
The professors' major hedge is that no major tropical event or terrorism act occurs during the forecast period.
Hall's presentation is available online.
For additional comment, contact Dr. Hall at 910.962.3419, fax 910.962.3579, e-mail hall@uncw.edu or Dr. Badarinathi at 910.962.3518, fax 910.962.3068, e-mail ravij@uncw.edu.
Media Contact: Mimi Cunningham, 910.963-3171, cunninghamm@uncw.edu.
Downloadable Photos
Photo 1
Photo 2
Woody Hall Headshot
|
